Tuesday 9 November 2010

Is Day-Trading more Dead than Mr Dead of Deadtown?

Consternation on forums and Live, bemoaning the death of the game. RIP transfers, death to finances, burn all the wages witches at the stake, woe is us and all that sail in us.

Hmmm… really? Well, so far, it seems a lot of those that dislike the new structure are managers that manipulated the old structure- as noted in the last post.

Is it the end of trading, though? I don’t think so. I know a lot of managers got a kick out of billions of trades and sales. I respect that. The problem was that that it seemed to be based on a set formular:

Find young player + good PA + bid accepted by gullible manager = profit in a few weeks.
(I’ll admit that I may have been that gullible manager before now)

There is a skill in it, I don't deny. I have seen the catalogues of purchases and sales of some managers and behold their greatness in the transfer market. But does it make sense?

Applying the much hated (especially when it disproves point of view) real life comparison: it was like buying Jack Wilshire, CRon7, Connor Wickham, Andy Carroll, & Chris Smalling…. Playing them in the odd game or 2 and, regardless of performances, selling them a season later to some sucker for a 50% increase on the price... just because there was a label on their head saying 'might be good in a season or few'.

As enjoyable as that may have been, it was too easy- value should only increase through good performances. Now we have the value tab (which, whilst helpfulish, still feels relatively unexplained) giving a guide, wages reflecting rep and dynamic Transfer Values….. so:

- If the players bought play well they increase in transfer value but their wage demand increase (realistic, but the day traders hate it because their plan to sell the world to itself has a barrier of increased wages)

- If purchased players play poorly, or little, they may have a reduction in Wage Demand, but *SHOCK* *HORROR*, their Rep/Transfer Value may decrease too….. meaning the sell on value is also lessened…..Agggghhhh… no profit for the Day Trader!! In fact, the carnal sin of (more shock horror)…(£LOSS!!!)

Does this mean trading is killed? I suggest not. I don’t want to come over all rose tinted (and accept it doesn’t seem fully tested so am prepared to be found wrong) but maybe this means managers will actually buy players they want to play in their side more, rather than MAINLY buying for the profit they ultimately get.

So, it isn’t impossible for it to work, but now managers have to choose the right players…. Perhaps ones with low Ave Ratings for the old manager, get them working, get the TV increased and then sell for a profit? But, unless they buy them very young, they will need to give them FA games…. And I think that is what annoys many of the day traders. They don’t actually want the players, just the profit.

In short…. The managers who can spot potential, can trade well & can get performances out of players will still excel. The charlatans will suffer…… Oh well.........

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